The architectural coatings industry, which includes paints, primers, sealers, stains, and varnishes for both interior and exterior applications, continues to be a dominant force within the global paints and coatings market. The Chem Quest Group estimates that in 2024, the global market size for decorative architectural coatings will reach 27.7 billion litres, valued at EUR 81 billion. By Kirsten Wrede.

The segment accounts for nearly half of the total coatings market, with major regional contributions as follows (Figure 1):

• Pacific: 52 %
• Europe: 16 %
• Latin America: 12 %
• North America: 11 %
• Middle East and Africa: 9 %

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The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2024-2029 is expected to be 2.8 % in volume and 5.0 % in value, driven primarily by increasing sustainability efforts, urbanisation, and economic expansion.

Key industry players

The architectural coatings market is dominated by diversified multinational companies, with Sherwin-Williams being the largest global supplier. Other key players include Akzo Nobel, Asian Paints, Axalta, Jotun, Kansai, Nippon Paint, PPG/Versaflex, and BASF. Notably, PPG has recently exited the North American market by selling its architectural coatings business to American Industrial Partners.

As Malte Nitz, Head of Global Strategy, Sustainability & Market Intelligence – BASF Dispersions & Resins highlights, “the current economic landscape, characterised by inflation and persistently high interest rates, is creating a sense of uncertainty within the industry. As a result, customers are increasingly valuing reliable and resilient supply chains, alongside local sourcing with trusted partners to ensure stability amidst these external challenges.”

According to the German Paint and Printing Ink Association (VdL), architectural coatings will account for 47 % of the total paints and coatings market in 2024. Dr Nicole Borho, Manager Portfolio Sustainability at DAW, explains: “Globally, we expect a slight growth in market volume of about 2 % by 2025. Architectural coatings are in line with the general trend and do not differ significantly from the development of the overall paints and coatings market, which means that their market share will also remain roughly the same”.

Similarly, Henrik Bergstrom, PPG, Senior Vice President, Architectural Coatings, Latin America, EMEA, and Asia Pacific, estimates global architectural coatings demand at EUR 85.5 billion, representing approximately 50 % of the total coatings market: “According to market research estimates, overall architectural coatings demand generally follows GDP, as it is closely linked to economic activity such as home and commercial building and renovation.“

Key growth drivers

As noted by Chem Quest, the primary growth driver in architectural coatings is building and construction activity. Increasing GDP levels fuel housing demand, government-funded housing projects, and renovation spending. While international suppliers dominate the market, regional suppliers remain strong competitors in their respective regions. Water-borne coatings continue to lead technological innovations due to their sustainability benefits.

Environmental regulations and customer preferences are driving the industry toward sustainable and bio-based alternatives. Dr Borho highlights the impact of the EU Green Deal on product development:

“In the EU, the Green Deal is promoting a change of principles in the development of materials that paves the way for innovative, resource-efficient paints and construction products: sustainability criteria are taken into account at the product design stage and materials at the end of their life cycle are not considered waste but new raw materials (‘urban mining’).“ She adds that in addition to low-emission and preservative-free paints for interior use, the focus is shifting to the formulation of economically competitive materials with a reduced CO₂ footprint. “To this end, bio-based raw materials or secondary raw materials can be used that contribute to climate and circular economy goals. Initial solutions are available, such as the use of camelina oil or plastic containers that use post-consumer recycled (PCR) plastic.”

As Dr Robert Heger, Vice President – BASF Polymer Dispersions for Architectural Coatings & Construction, EMEA states, “we are focusing our sustainability activities on two key levers: reducing our own CO2 emissions and enabling our customers to reduce their emissions.” In Europe, BASF is developing sustainable, CO2-reduced and bio-based solutions for architectural coatings in line with the legal requirements set by the REACH regulation and the European Green Deal.

PPG is also investing in sustainable alternatives, as Bergstrom explains: “While there isn’t yet a regulatory requirement for sustainable products or products that include bio-based materials, we continue to evaluate bio-based and bio-mass balance alternatives.“ He says that their architectural coatings business in Europe has identified a significant opportunity to meet market demand for products with sustainability benefits. “With the introduction of paints with a lower carbon footprint, we have provided mass market access to low-carbon, bio-based paints with great affordability and performance.”

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Climate change and specialty coatings

Climate change is significantly influencing demand for architectural coatings, particularly for exterior applications. Extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves, heavy rain, and frost are increasing the demand for coatings with cooling properties and enhanced durability.

Dr Borho notes: “Climate change and the increase in extreme weather events are increasing the need for climate adaptation and climate protection measures, which is leading to an increasing demand for special coatings with a cooling effect”. BASF is actively addressing these needs, as Dr Heger explains: “Today, we supply a variety of different products for exterior coatings to virtually every region and for different weather conditions and climate zones. Increasingly, extreme weather events are also being taken into account, including heavy rain, hail, frost, intense sunlight, and air pollution.” PPG is focusing on smart coatings that offer functionalities beyond decoration, as Bergstrom notes: “The development of smart coatings – those that are designed to deliver functionality beyond decoration – represents a significant opportunity for the industry. These coatings can offer enhanced functionality, such as temperature regulation in the built environment.“

Geopolitical factors and supply chain impact

Geopolitical tensions are shaping supply chain dynamics and impacting raw material costs. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global trade disputes have led to higher energy and raw material costs, particularly in Europe.

Dr Borho explains: “The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a drastic increase in energy prices and thus the costs of energy-intensive raw materials in Europe, while additional global trade conflicts make it more likely that punitive tariffs will be imposed on important raw materials, causing further cost increases, for example for titanium dioxide”. According to Dr Borho, economic recovery is expected in the future, particularly in the infrastructure sector. “Strategies to strengthen the resilience of the countries in the European area could include the expansion of renewable energies and investments in production sites with energy-intensive raw materials.”

As Malte Nitz emphasises: “We are well positioned to support our customers across the globe with innovative high performance product solutions – including a comprehensive portfolio of circular products with a reduced Product Carbon Footprint – technical expertise/know-how, and a globalised production network helping to mitigate risks associated with escalating geopolitical tensions, and ensuring supply security our customers can count on to enable their green transformations.”

PPG highlights the impact of tariffs, with Bergstrom stating: “Architectural coatings are generally produced locally to supply local markets and so tend to be less affected by geopolitical factors such as changes in tariffs. However, they can be significantly affected by changes in tariffs on raw materials, which are much more globally traded.“ Bergstrom continues: “That is currently the case in the European Union following the imposition of tariffs on titanium dioxide imports from China. These duties will have a negative impact on competitiveness for the EU coatings industry versus paints produced outside the EU using Chinese TiO2 that is not subject to antidumping duties.”

Conclusion

The architectural coatings market remains a key segment within the global coatings industry, with steady growth driven by economic activity, sustainability initiatives, and the need to adapt to climate change. While multinational companies continue to lead the market, local players remain strong competitors. Regulatory pressures and changing customer preferences are accelerating the development of bio-based and low-carbon solutions, while geopolitical factors continue to pose challenges. The coatings industry is positioning itself to address these trends through innovation, sustainability, and supply chain resilience.